Aegis Group's Carat said today that both global and U.S. ad spending would be substantially worse for full-year 2009 than it had previously forecast.
Now, the shop says, global expenditures will drop almost 10 percent. In March, the agency forecast a global spending drop this year of roughly 6 percent.
Carat said the revised outlook was "due to significant reduction of forecasts in all regions, with the exception of Asia Pacific, where the 2009 forecast has been revised marginally upwards."
Meanwhile the global outlook for 2010 is slightly positive, with the shop predicting a 1 percent gain, driven by "much more stable conditions in the West and recovery in developing markets, particularly China."
In the U.S., Aegis sharply reduced its full-year 2009 forecast, indicating that ad spending will plunge more than 16 percent, down from the nearly 10 percent decline predicted in March. "All the major media categories are tracking below last year," the shop stated.
Aegis said further declines are expected for the U.S. in 2010, when market spending will drop another 2.6 percent.
The shop also revised downward its spending prediction for the U.K., now saying the market will be down close to 12 percent and not the 7 percent decline forecast in March. Carat said the U.K. spending outlook for 2010 should improve slightly with a gain of 1.4 percent.
Commenting on the new forecast, Jerry Buhlmann, CEO, Aegis Media, said: "Despite the reduction to forecasts for 2009, we still believe that 2010 will see growth, albeit very modest. We expect the market to bottom out in North America and Europe, and to improve further in developing markets. Even after that initial recovery, however, the global advertising market will still be below its absolute 2006 level."
— Nielsen Business Media