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Softer Job Prospects Ahead Worldwide
April 14, 2008
Edited by Jeremy Cohen
In yet more cheerful economic news, employers will be taking a step back in second-quarter hiring in many of the world's largest economies.
That prognosis comes courtesy of a new survey released by Manpower, Inc. Notably, employers in the United States, China, Italy, Norway and Spain have indicated that they will be adding fewer employees in the quarter ahead, marking a more negative tone than in survey results throughout the past year.
"There has been a decided shift in employer sentiment in this quarter's survey, with employers in many countries—including the U.S.—pulling back their hiring plans in a bigger way than we have seen in several years," says Jeffrey A. Joerres, chairman and CEO of Manpower. "The important change we are seeing is not about reductions in workforces, like we would typically expect in a recessionary period, but rather an increase in the percentages of employers who are planning to put a hold on hiring and forge ahead with the people they already have."
"This is definitely a 'wait and see' approach as they evaluate where their economies are headed, rather than a panic attack at this point," he adds.
The most favorable second quarter hiring plans globally were reported by employers in Singapore, India, Peru, Romania, Costa Rica, Argentina, Poland, Hong Kong, Australia, Greece and South Africa, with those in Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia reporting their most optimistic hiring plans since the survey began there. Conversely, employers in Spain and Italy report the weakest job prospects in the next three months.
Of the 17 countries surveyed in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region, employers in Romania, Poland, Greece, South Africa and Norway are most optimistic about adding to their workforces. In contrast, hiring optimism among Irish and Spanish employers fell considerably from one year ago, with the outlook in Spain being the weakest in the region.
"The positive hiring prospects reported in the newly surveyed countries of Romania, Poland and Greece reflect employer demand for talent in markets where foreign direct investment and labor migration are increasing the competition for available talent," says Joerres.
In Asia Pacific, the survey data reveals varying degrees of positive hiring expectations. Employer optimism increased from the first quarter and one year ago in four of eight countries and territories surveyed. The strongest employer hiring plans were again reported in India and Singapore, while employers in China reported the weakest hiring outlook in the region for the third consecutive quarter. The forecasts for Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia were the most optimistic reported by employers since the survey began in these geographies in 2003.
"Year-over-year hiring expectations are weaker across every industry sector surveyed in China, signaling a slowdown for the quarter ahead," says Joerres. "However, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong are expecting improved hiring prospects. Job prospects in the services sector across the Asia Pacific region are expected to improve, in particular, as employers in six of eight countries and territories are reporting stronger outlooks compared to 12 months ago."
Across the Americas, employers in Peru, Costa Rica and Argentina are most optimistic about hiring in the next three months, while those in Canada are the least optimistic. Meanwhile, Mexican employers continue to report steady, upbeat hiring expectations.
"The strength seen in the Mexican labor market should continue with employers in the transport and communication, commerce and mining sectors reporting their most optimistic hiring plans in six years," says Joerres. "On the other hand, their neighbors to the north in the U.S. and Canada are less optimistic, with the construction sectors in these countries revealing the steepest year-over-year declines in hiring confidence."
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